What will 2024 be like in the real estate industry?

What will the real estate industry look like in 2024? Will housing prices continue to rise? The future in the new year will depend, among other things, on the decisions of the new Polish government, interest rates, inflation levels, and the amount of available financial resources to continue the "Safe Credit 2%" program. We analyze the situation in the housing market based on available facts.

Fewer apartments delivered for use than in previous years

The report from the Polish Economic Institute published in December last year indicated that the end of 2023 marks a time of increased investment starts. However, it is important to be aware that the results of this phenomenon will take time to manifest and will not contribute to the supply of delivered residential units in 2024.

Experts from PIE predict that the number of apartments delivered for use in 2024 will be around 200,000. This is nearly a 30% decrease compared to 2021, and simultaneously, the worst result since 2017. This situation is certainly due to unfavorable credit conditions and rising construction material prices.

Increasing interest among Poles in purchasing their own apartments

In 2024, further growth in interest among the Polish society in acquiring their own apartments is expected. Such forecasts are most likely because, in the last six months, the National Bank of Poland lowered interest rates, and the Financial Supervision Authority eased the requirements for obtaining a mortgage loan.

The growing demand for personal apartments has also been fueled by the "Safe Credit 2%" program, which is set to continue in 2024. Moreover, the increase in interested parties for their own apartments is driven by modern residential investments where one can buy their dream home. An excellent example is the Vola estate, setting new trends in the construction market. The investment is located in the heart of the Warsaw district of Wola. Its great location ensures that residents have access to all services and green areas at their fingertips.

The factors mentioned above have led to a rebound in the credit market, which was extremely weak in 2022. Thanks in part to the government housing program, in 2023, Poles submitted nearly 40,000 mortgage applications monthly, representing a 200% increase compared to the previous year's data.

Unfortunately, the authors of the PIE report emphasize that the housing market in 2024 will still not provide a sufficient number of apartments delivered for use relative to the scale of interest. This will certainly lead to a further increase in prices for apartments per square meter, especially concerning new estates being built in the largest Polish cities. Therefore, if you are interested in new apartments in Warsaw, remember that it’s not worth postponing the decision to purchase your own residential unit until the second half of the year.

The construction market in a bleak scenario

The Polish Economic Institute, in its analysis, has unfortunately noted that the prospects in Polish construction are still not optimistic. Although Polish developers are indeed willing to undertake new residential investments, one should not expect a spectacular recovery.

Such a statement is supported by data concerning economic trends. In 2023, it was -13.2, while in 2022, it was -23.9. The last positive result was recorded in 2019 before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The ongoing negative trend is due, among other factors, to rising employment costs and construction material prices.

Changes in construction law and beyond

When discussing the changes that will take place in 2024, it is impossible not to mention the amendment to construction law. This refers to changes in regulations regarding technical conditions that buildings and their location must meet, proposed to limit the phenomenon of so-called pathological development. The changes are set to take effect on April 1 of this year and will certainly impact the practices of Polish developers.

The year 2024 will be a time of challenges for developers, as starting July 2 of this year, they will have to comply with the Act of May 20, 2021, on the protection of the rights of buyers of residential premises or single-family homes and the Developer Guarantee Fund. This means that developers will need to adjust their documents to legal changes regarding, among other things, developer agreements and sales.

Increase in the popularity of institutional rental

In the coming months, there may be an increase in the popularity of the residential segment known as PRS (Private Rented Sector). These are units offered under institutional rental, which are extremely popular in Western European countries. However, this segment is still relatively unknown in Poland, currently making up only 15% of the entire Polish rental market. It is worth noting that the number of people interested in renting an apartment from a business entity is growing dynamically. Given the rising prices of apartments in both the primary and secondary markets, renting from legal entities is becoming an attractive alternative.

In 2024, it is estimated that the Polish Private Rented Sector will expand by another 15,000 residential units, with about 14,000 apartments still under construction. This means that individuals who, for various reasons, cannot afford to purchase their own apartment can also look forward to other solutions available in the Polish real estate market. It is also important to note that PRS may represent an attractive option for Generation Z individuals, who are characterized by a greater ease in making decisions regarding job or residence changes.

As seen, the real estate market will face many challenges in 2024. It will also bring many positive developments, including new apartments for sale in Warsaw. Interested? We warmly invite you to check out our residential offerings.