What will the prices of apartments be in 2024 in the largest cities?

After the dynamic rise in prices in 2023, everyone interested in purchasing their dream “M” is wondering what the prices of apartments will be in the new year. There is a high probability that prices will continue to rise, and the chances of stabilizing prices are slim. What can be expected in the real estate market in 2024? We will try to answer this extremely difficult question in the article below. We invite you to read on.

How Did Apartment Prices Grow in 2023?

To answer the question of what apartment prices will be in 2024, we must refer to the previous year, which directly shapes the housing market in the new year. In 2023, there was a sharp increase in apartment prices in both the primary and secondary markets. According to data presented in the report by Expander and Rentier.io, property prices across Poland increased by an average of 13% from January to November 2023.

The biggest leaders are, of course, large cities. Kraków topped the list, where offers increased by 23%. In practice, the price per square meter jumped from 12,500 PLN to 14,500 PLN. After Kraków, price increases were recorded in Warsaw (21%), Katowice (19%), Wrocław (18%), and Poznań (18%). As indicated by the report's authors, the first quarter of 2024 is a time when everyone expects a new version of the government program, loan holidays, and the Borrower Support Fund.

Safe Loan Program 2% in the Face of High Prices

In 2023, everyone experienced significant changes in apartment prices. The dynamics of price increases resulted from several factors that were not considered in previous forecasts. Many real estate market experts point out that the Safe Loan Program 2% significantly influenced the price increase. The mere announcement of this program at the end of 2022 already stimulated the housing market. As a result, cash buyers accelerated their decisions to purchase property.

From the beginning of 2023, the most attractive offers in terms of price began to disappear on a large scale. This situation occurred in both the primary and secondary markets. The publication of details about the Safe Loan Program 2% caused an automatic price increase to 800,000 PLN, which is the upper limit set by the mentioned program.

Even before the banks accepted the applications, many beneficiaries had already signed preliminary purchase agreements. Previously unseen interest in the government program caused property owners to dictate terms and be unwilling to negotiate. In practice, analyses indicate that apartment prices in large cities increased by an average of 20-30% during 2023.

What Will Apartment Prices Look Like in 2024?

Analysts loudly emphasize that the phenomenon of dynamic price growth experienced in 2023 occurred during a pre-pandemic boom. At that time, properties in smaller towns increased in price by an average of 2%, while residential prices in large cities and metropolises rose by as much as 10%.

What Influences Apartment Prices?

Property prices are shaped by many factors, including interest rates, demographic situation, availability of mortgage loans, accessibility to government programs, and the quality of finishing materials. Analysts indicate that in the first quarter of 2024, a decrease in demand will occur due to the enormous increase in interest from the previous year. This phenomenon seems quite natural. In practice, the market expects price stabilization or a minimal decrease in the first quarter of this year, although the latter is less likely.

The later situation will depend on the form of the new government program, namely "Housing for Start," and the decisions of the Monetary Policy Council regarding interest rates. Nevertheless, analysts suggest that for apartments in good locations in major Polish cities, a minimal price increase of 10-15% in 2024, compared to 2023, should be expected. This is due to the fact that demand still exceeds supply, which means that those waiting for a period of cheaper apartments will have to wait for better times.

Experts in the real estate industry indicate that there is currently a need for dialogue among politicians and investors to create a sustainable development of the real estate market.

So, What Will Apartment Prices Be Like in 2024 in Major Cities?

At this point, there are no indications to suggest that property prices will fall and reach levels from a few years ago.

It's also worth mentioning that developers themselves do not see a chance for price reductions or even stabilization. The reason is the still rising land prices, which cost a significant amount even in 2022 when interest in housing was relatively low. The situation may only change if government-level decisions are made to improve housing accessibility and release land from State Treasury companies. So when will prices drop? This question will be clarified in the coming months.

Although the outlook for 2024 is not optimistic, it does not mean that Poles are doomed to only increasingly expensive apartments. There are still investments available that will be delivered in the first quarter of 2024, enticing with attractive prices. An excellent example is the Vola estate, which is distinguished by its excellent location near the center of Warsaw and modern design that attracts the attention of passersby. Don’t wait and take advantage of your chance. New apartments in Warsaw are waiting for you!